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{"id":73873,"date":"2020-10-29T08:49:21","date_gmt":"2020-10-29T13:49:21","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.ryanandwetmore.com\/?p=73873"},"modified":"2022-06-27T22:23:22","modified_gmt":"2022-06-27T22:23:22","slug":"ma-in-the-wake-of-the-2020-election","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.randwpc.com\/rwblog\/ma-in-the-wake-of-the-2020-election\/","title":{"rendered":"M&A in the Wake of the 2020 Election"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n

2020 Election Could Impact Middle-Market M&A: Predictions & More<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Companies across a range of industry sectors and geographies are experiencing a surge in M&A activity and dealmaking.  As the election quickly approaches and mail-in ballots continue to be cast, now is a good time for dealmakers within the middle-market to consider what impacts the 2020 election could have on M&A activity. It is no question that the election will influence the M&A landscape, but how<\/em> it will change M&A activity is the real conundrum. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While there is no way of being\nentirely certain of what the true outcome of the election will be, in\nconjunction with its effects, there are some things we can predict knowing what\nwe already know about M&A and its relation to politics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Below is a collection of our\npredictions that we may see unfold if the Democrats are to secure both the\nSenate, the Houses of Representatives, and the White House.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An M&A Market if Democrats\nControl the White House & Congress<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Tax policy continues to make an impact\non M&A activity, and Donald Trump\u2019s and Joe Biden\u2019s plans are starkly\ndifferent.  We could see significant\nchanges in the M&A market if Biden were to win the election and the Democrats\nwere to occupy Congress.  If the current\nproposed tax plan of Joe Biden is enacted, it would include the following\npolicy changes: <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Business Tax Changes<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Significance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Biden\u2019s proposed tax changes as they relate to businesses would greatly impact C-corporations. As a result of this increase, businesses will have to pay more in income taxes, decreasing cash flow.  In turn, this will impact businesses on both the buy and sell-side.  Companies on the sell-side risk being valued for less due to cash flow concerns, and since sell-side companies will have unfavorable valuations they would be less likely to sell.  However, companies on the buy side see these as buying opportunities that could pay off in the long-run. Given these varying considerations, tax policy will cause a major disruption in M&A activity, including a rush to make deals before tax law changes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Individual & Payroll Tax Changes<\/strong><\/h4>\n\n\n
\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Significance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Something to note is that this increase from 37% to 39.6% would not reduce long-run growth. Reason being that the short-term nature of the tax reduction under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) is not set to expire until 2026. In a similar manner, we can also anticipate the same effect, should Biden win the election, with regard to individuals earning over $400,000. While Section 199A is expected to expire in 2026 under TCJA, Biden\u2019s tax plan includes the elimination of the 20% QBI deduction.  Companies with numerous high earners should consider the reality where cash flow is notably impacted. <\/p>\n\n\n

\n
\"\"<\/figure>\n<\/div>\n\n\n

Significance<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For owners of pass-through entities, the proposal to increase the capital gains rate to 39.6% on income over $1 million will be a major factor in considering whether or when to sell their business. In the M&A space, the sale of a business is taxed at a capital gains rate. And with this proposed increase, which would be the largest increases in capital gains rate history, dealmakers and business owners may be discouraged to sell. However, the businesses that are not entirely deterred from selling can possibly benefit from greater tax savings now if a sale agreement is closed by the end of this year. Installment sales made in the year 2020 will have their taxes reflect the tax policy of this year, but will then have the remaining installments reflect Biden\u2019s tax policy (if the election is in his favor) in the latter years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In contrast to businesses that are reluctant to sell\/buy, researchers and economists have found that an increase in capital gains taxes has led to the selling of stocks.  An impending tax increase might ignite activity as owners seek a tax-efficient business exit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Either decision, to\nsell or not to sell, and to buy or not to buy, will come with its own pros and\ncons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

***   These changes in Biden\u2019s proposed tax policy will likely only become law if both<\/em> the Senate and House of Representatives have a Democratic majority and<\/em> they agree to the bill  ***<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Influence of COVID-19 <\/strong>on M&A Deals<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

While mergers & acquisitions were just short of a complete\nstandstill in March of 2020, the M&A outlook is robust.  The potential upcoming change in tax\nlegislation, coupled with the turbulent and ambiguous economic environment due\nto the coronavirus crisis, are changing the manner in which M&A deals are\ndeveloped and negotiated. Overall, sellers are claiming that 2020 operations\nare not indicative of the business\u2019s history, while buyers, in contraposition,\nare concerned businesses will not return to normalcy in the coming future.  Both sellers and buyers are adjusting to the dynamic\ncircumstances to mitigate their business risks with changes to dealmaking and deal\nterms including:<\/p>\n\n\n\n